Gold Holds Momentum – EUR/USD at a Turning Point

Market Update – October 2, 2025

Gold Holds Momentum – EUR/USD at a Turning Point

📰 Fundamental Context

• Gold remains the star of the markets, recently pushing above historic highs, supported by safe-haven demand, a weaker dollar, and expectations of continued Federal Reserve easing. As of this week, gold briefly tested levels near $3,800, marking a record rally.
• The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to struggle, holding around 97 but unable to break above 98, reflecting persistent weakness amid Fed rate cuts and softer US macro data.
• EUR/USD is consolidating while testing key resistance areas. With the dollar under pressure, traders are closely watching whether the euro can sustain momentum for a breakout.
• Ongoing geopolitical tensions and global liquidity flows further drive demand for defensive assets like gold.

Analisis Teknis + Fundamental

Emas (XAU/USD)

Technical Outlook:

• Gold is holding firm above the demand zone at 3860, confirming strong bullish momentum.
• A sustained close above 3850 keeps the upside scenario alive, with 3920 as the next target.
• A break below 3850 could trigger a corrective dip into the FVG zone between 3839 – 3823, where a rebound is likely.
• Failure to hold that zone opens the way toward the OB demand zone at 3817 – 3793, expected to provide stronger support.
• A decisive break below 3790 would shift gold into a deeper corrective phase, signaling bearish control.

Penggerak Fundamental:

• Ongoing Fed rate cuts reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, boosting demand.
• Persistent dollar weakness strengthens gold’s appeal.
• Heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainties sustain safe-haven flows.

EUR/USD

Technical Outlook:

• The pair is approaching a key resistance zone between 1.17580 – 1.17782.
• If price fails to break higher, a corrective move is likely, with downside targets at 1.17120 and 1.16400.
• A confirmed breakout above 1.1800 would invalidate the correction, opening the path for a fresh bullish leg toward new highs.

Penggerak Fundamental:

• Diverging policy paths between the Fed and the ECB remain central to EUR/USD’s direction.
• Continued Fed easing pressures the dollar, while signs of stability in Eurozone inflation could support the euro.
• Upcoming US labor and inflation data will be critical in shaping short-term momentum.

🎯 Market Scenarios

🧭 Conclusion

• Gold’s overall structure remains bullish, with pullbacks offering potential entry zones as long as 3790 holds.
• EUR/USD sits at a critical resistance; the next move will depend on whether bulls can break 1.1800 or if sellers push the pair into a correction.
• Traders should closely monitor US macro data, Fed commentary, and Eurozone updates, as fundamentals remain the ultimate driver of technical setups.

Oleh Motasm Adel

Peneliti Pasar dan Analis

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