Market Update:17th December 2025- Two Jobs Reports Walk into a Market… CPI Waits at the Bar

Yesterday’s double-header Non-Farm Payrolls release gave markets plenty to chew on, even if it didn’t quite settle the argument. Taken together, the numbers point to a U.S. labour market that is cooling politely, rather than collapsing through the floor.

The detail matters.

• October NFP: roughly -105k jobs, heavily distorted by shutdown effects

• November NFP: around +64k jobs, modestly beating expectations

• Unemployment rate: rising to 4.6%, the highest in several years

• Average hourly earnings: easing to around 0.1% m/m

On the surface, November’s rebound looks encouraging. Scratch beneath it, however, and the broader story is one of slowing momentum. Job creation is weaker than it was, unemployment is edging higher, and wage growth, the Fed’s preferred stress point continues to cool.

In other words, the labour market is still standing, but it’s no longer sprinting.

For markets, that’s actually quite useful. It removes the risk of labour-driven inflation without forcing an immediate recession narrative. The Fed can afford to sit still, look thoughtful, and insist once again that it is “data dependent.”

Which brings us neatly to U.S. CPI.

CPI: The Only Number That Really Matters This Week

With the jobs story now broadly priced, inflation takes centre stage.

• Headline CPI (expected): 3.0% y/y

• Core CPI (expected): 3.2–3.3% y/y, with signs of further monthly moderation

After a labour report that offered reassurance rather than excitement, CPI carries the burden of proof. A softer print would validate the idea that disinflation is slowly doing its job and keep rate-cut expectations alive. A firmer number, however, would remind markets that the last mile on inflation remains stubbornly uphill.

Market Takeaway

The NFPs didn’t change the story they refined it.
The U.S. economy is slowing but not breaking. Labour is easing but not collapsing. And the Fed is waiting, patiently, for inflation to blink first.
Until CPI speaks, markets are likely to remain cautious, range-bound, and quietly opinionated, much like the data itself.

Anyway, till next time, every single of on you, trade safe!

Oleh James Trescothick
Ketua Penyelidikan Pasaran dan Analisis Pasaran

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