Actualización del mercado: 20 de febrero - Cuando sube el petróleo y hablan los jueces

Just as markets were settling into a comfortable rhythm cooling inflation, potential rate cuts on the horizon two variables reasserted themselves: geopolitics and the judiciary.
Neither sends a calendar invite.

Middle East Tensions: The Risk Premium Returns

Renewed tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil higher not because supply has been lost, but because it might be. In energy markets, probability is enough.
Higher crude feeds directly into inflation expectations, which in turn complicates central bank plans. Rate-cut optimism softens. Equity multiples feel the pressure. Growth stocks wobble. Energy stocks don’t.

Gold has edged up. The dollar has firmed. Bonds are torn between safe-haven demand and inflation anxiety. This isn’t panic, it’s repricing.

The Supreme Court and Tariff Uncertainty

At the same time, the Supreme Court’s decision on tariff authority (which could be announced today) has added legal ambiguity to trade policy.

Markets can model higher tariffs. What they struggle to model is uncertainty over who controls them and how stable they are. Tariffs are, after all, taxes. Taxes compress margins. Compressed margins temper earnings expectations.

Industrials and multinationals sit closest to the impact. Supply chains, once optimized for efficiency, now require flexibility and flexibility is expensive.

Bottom Line

Indices remain relatively calm, but leadership is narrowing. Energy and defensive sectors are absorbing flows. Rate-sensitive names are trading more nervously. Credit spreads have widened modestly, caution, not crisis.

Two assumptions are now under review: geopolitical containment and policy predictability. When those wobble, markets don’t collapse, they recalibrate.
For investors, this is less a moment for boldness and more one for discipline. Volatility isn’t noise. It’s information.

¡Bueno, hasta la próxima, que operen todos de forma segura!

Por James Trescothick
Jefe de Investigación de Mercado y Análisis de Mercado

Descargo de responsabilidad de riesgo: Esta información es solo para fines educativos y no constituye asesoramiento de inversión. Los mercados financieros implican riesgos, y el rendimiento pasado no es indicativo de resultados futuros. Siempre realice su propia investigación y busque asesoramiento profesional antes de tomar decisiones de inversión.