欧元/美元的关键水平和市场前景 - 2025 年 2 月 25 日

当前市场概况

As of February 25, 2025, the EUR/USD exchange rate stands at 1.04653, trading near critical price levels. The three pivotal levels to watch are:

• 1.11865 – Upper resistance level
• 1.06120 – Key mid-range level
• 1.02300 – Strong support level

The euro is experiencing a decline from its recent highs, while the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen. This movement follows a brief surge in the euro after the conservative party’s victory in Germany’s elections. However, investor focus has now shifted towards the timeline for forming a coalition government.

Political and Economic Drivers

Market participants are closely monitoring signals regarding Germany’s fiscal policy. A key concern is whether the German government will consider loosening the “debt brake” rule, a constitutional fiscal restraint that caps budget deficits at 0.35% of GDP. This policy discussion has gained traction after the euro dropped to 1.06120, marking its lowest level since December 2021.

Additionally, the euro has declined by more than 3% from its highest level in over two years, which it reached in January 2025. This sell-off reflects market uncertainties, economic outlook shifts, and shifting monetary policy expectations.

Technical Outlook and Trading Considerations

• Bearish Scenario: If EUR/USD fails to hold above 1.04653, further declines toward 1.02300 could be expected.
• Bullish Scenario: A recovery above 1.06120 may pave the way for a move towards 1.11865.
• Investor Sentiment: Political developments in Germany and potential fiscal policy changes remain key factors influencing price action.

结论

The euro is currently facing downward pressure as investors reassess the political and economic landscape in Europe. Key technical levels suggest a pivotal trading range between 1.02300 and 1.06120, with potential for volatility as new economic and political developments unfold. Traders should remain cautious and closely monitor upcoming policy decisions and central bank signals.

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