Yesterday\u2019s double-header Non-Farm Payrolls release gave markets plenty to chew on, even if it didn\u2019t quite settle the argument. Taken together, the numbers point to a U.S. labour market that is cooling politely, rather than collapsing through the floor.<\/p>\n
The detail matters.<\/strong><\/p>\n \u2022 October NFP: roughly -105k jobs, heavily distorted by shutdown effects<\/p>\n \u2022 November NFP: around +64k jobs, modestly beating expectations<\/p>\n \u2022 Unemployment rate: rising to 4.6%, the highest in several years<\/p>\n \u2022 Average hourly earnings: easing to around 0.1% m\/m<\/p>\n On the surface, November\u2019s rebound looks encouraging. Scratch beneath it, however, and the broader story is one of slowing momentum. Job creation is weaker than it was, unemployment is edging higher, and wage growth, the Fed\u2019s preferred stress point continues to cool.<\/p>\n In other words, the labour market is still standing, but it\u2019s no longer sprinting.<\/p>\n For markets, that\u2019s actually quite useful. It removes the risk of labour-driven inflation without forcing an immediate recession narrative. The Fed can afford to sit still, look thoughtful, and insist once again that it is \u201cdata dependent.\u201d<\/p>\n Which brings us neatly to U.S. CPI.<\/p>\n CPI: The Only Number That Really Matters This Week<\/strong><\/p>\n With the jobs story now broadly priced, inflation takes centre stage.<\/p>\n \u2022 Headline CPI (expected): 3.0% y\/y<\/p>\n \u2022 Core CPI (expected): 3.2\u20133.3% y\/y, with signs of further monthly moderation<\/p>\n After a labour report that offered reassurance rather than excitement, CPI carries the burden of proof. A softer print would validate the idea that disinflation is slowly doing its job and keep rate-cut expectations alive. A firmer number, however, would remind markets that the last mile on inflation remains stubbornly uphill.<\/p>\n Market Takeaway<\/strong><\/p>\n The NFPs didn\u2019t change the story they refined it. Anyway, till next time, every single of on you, trade safe!<\/p>\n B\u1edfi James Trescothick Tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 mi\u1ec5n tr\u1eeb tr\u00e1ch nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ec1 r\u1ee7i ro: Th\u00f4ng tin n\u00e0y ch\u1ec9 d\u00e0nh cho m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch gi\u00e1o d\u1ee5c v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea5u th\u00e0nh l\u1eddi khuy\u00ean \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n nhi\u1ec1u r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. Lu\u00f4n t\u1ef1 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u00e0 t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm l\u1eddi khuy\u00ean chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi \u0111\u01b0a ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Yesterday\u2019s double-header Non-Farm Payrolls release gave markets plenty to chew on, even if it didn\u2019t quite settle the argument. Taken together, the numbers point to a U.S. labour market that is cooling politely, rather than collapsing through the floor. The detail matters. \u2022 October NFP: roughly -105k jobs, heavily distorted by shutdown effects \u2022 November […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":23710,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24262","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-news"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24262","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24262"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24262\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25066,"href":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24262\/revisions\/25066"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/23710"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24262"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24262"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24262"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nThe U.S. economy is slowing but not breaking. Labour is easing but not collapsing. And the Fed is waiting, patiently, for inflation to blink first.
\nUntil CPI speaks, markets are likely to remain cautious, range-bound, and quietly opinionated, much like the data itself.<\/p>\n
\nTr\u01b0\u1edfng ph\u00f2ng Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/p>\n