{"id":23770,"date":"2025-07-01T09:28:30","date_gmt":"2025-07-01T09:28:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/posts-or-news.local\/?p=23770"},"modified":"2026-04-30T08:14:13","modified_gmt":"2026-04-30T08:14:13","slug":"market-update-1st-july-2025-june-wraps-up-a-chaotic-first-6-months-of-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/vi\/market-update-1st-july-2025-june-wraps-up-a-chaotic-first-6-months-of-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Market Update: 1st July 2025- June Wraps up a Chaotic First 6 Months of 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

U.S. Stocks & Futures<\/strong><\/p>\n

U.S. equities closed out the first half of 2025 on a high note, S&P\u202f500, Nasdaq, and Dow all booked back-to-back record months, buoyed by easing trade tensions and strong tech earnings. This morning, futures are holding steady near new highs, suggesting a cautious but optimistic open.<\/p>\n

Dollar Weakness<\/strong><\/p>\n

The U.S. dollar is hitting multi-year lows, with the Dollar Index at its weakest since early 2022. The euro has climbed above $1.18 amid investor concern over federal debt and political pressure on the Fed to cut rates<\/p>\n

Global Equities & Commodities<\/strong><\/p>\n

Asian markets are modestly higher following U.S.’s late-session gains, though OPEC+ production concerns are pushing oil prices lower<\/p>\n

Key Drivers Ahead of NFP<\/strong><\/p>\n

1. Fed Rate-Policy Pressure<\/strong><\/p>\n

President Trump continues to push for interest rate cuts, reappearing in public remarks and even a handwritten note. Meanwhile, select Fed voices like Michelle Bowman and Chris Waller indicate that a July cut remains on the table though not yet priced in by futures (currently showing ~23% odds)<\/p>\n

2. Trade & Policy Crosswinds<\/strong><\/p>\n

A temporary pause in Canada\u2019s digital services tax and calm on the Middle Eastern front helped hoist markets higher. Yet geopolitical jitters linger: July 9 marks the deadline for the 90-day tariff pause, and fresh mega bill votes in the Senate could stir volatility<\/p>\n

3. Eyes on Thursday\u2019s NFP<\/strong><\/p>\n

This week\u2019s shortened holiday schedule means all eyes are on the June jobs report due Thursday. Economists forecast 110K jobs added, with modest wage and unemployment variances any deviation could prompt immediate repricing of Fed expectation.<\/p>\n

Conclusion:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Today feels like the calm before the storm. Markets sit near record highs, but underlying risks trade timelines, fiscal bills, and an uncertain Fed are feeding into low-volume caution. It\u2019s a day for watching positioning, liquidity, and cross-asset flows as we edge toward Thursday\u2019s pivotal U.S. jobs report.<\/p>\n

Anyway, till next time, all of your trade safe!<\/p>\n

B\u1edfi James Trescothick
\nTr\u01b0\u1edfng ph\u00f2ng Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/p>\n

Tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 mi\u1ec5n tr\u1eeb tr\u00e1ch nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ec1 r\u1ee7i ro: Th\u00f4ng tin n\u00e0y ch\u1ec9 d\u00e0nh cho m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch gi\u00e1o d\u1ee5c v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea5u th\u00e0nh l\u1eddi khuy\u00ean \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n nhi\u1ec1u r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. Lu\u00f4n t\u1ef1 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u00e0 t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm l\u1eddi khuy\u00ean chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi \u0111\u01b0a ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

U.S. Stocks & Futures U.S. equities closed out the first half of 2025 on a high note, S&P\u202f500, Nasdaq, and Dow all booked back-to-back record months, buoyed by easing trade tensions and strong tech earnings. This morning, futures are holding steady near new highs, suggesting a cautious but optimistic open. Dollar Weakness The U.S. dollar […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":23862,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23770","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-news"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23770","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23770"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23770\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25088,"href":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23770\/revisions\/25088"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/23862"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23770"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23770"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23770"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}