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Oil Surges After Geopolitical Escalation – Is $100 the Next Target?

Market Reaction Confirms Earlier Warnings

The oil market has reacted strongly to the rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, validating the scenario outlined in our previous analysis. As concerns around the Iran conflict intensified, crude oil prices surged sharply, reflecting the increasing geopolitical risk premium priced into energy markets.

Following the escalation in regional tensions, US Oil (WTI) rallied aggressively and briefly approached the $100 per barrel psychological level, confirming the market’s sensitivity to developments surrounding Iran and the broader Middle East.

This reaction highlights how quickly energy markets respond when supply security becomes uncertain.

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What Happened Since the Previous Analysis?

In the previous article, we highlighted the possibility that escalating tensions could trigger a significant move higher in oil prices, potentially pushing the market toward $100 ต่อบาร์เรล.

Since then, several developments have fueled the bullish momentum:

• Rising geopolitical tensions involving Iran

• Increased concerns about potential disruptions in Middle Eastern oil supply

• Market speculation regarding the safety of key shipping routes

• Heightened geopolitical risk premium in energy markets

These factors collectively drove a strong rally in crude oil before the market began to consolidate below the $100 level.

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Technical Update: Oil Corrects After Testing Key Resistance

From a technical perspective, the oil market has recently entered a ระยะการแก้ไข after the sharp rally.

Price action shows that oil rejected the $100 psychological resistance, triggering a short-term pullback as traders locked in profits following the rapid upward move.

Currently, the market is stabilizing around the $90 region, which may act as an important short-term support level.

ระดับสำคัญที่ต้องจับตา

Major Resistance

100.00 – A critical psychological barrier. A confirmed breakout above this level could open the door toward:

• 105

• 110

• and potentially higher levels if geopolitical risks escalate further.

ระดับการสนับสนุน

90.00 – Immediate support and current consolidation zone.

If selling pressure increases, the next support areas appear at:

• 77.28

• 70.97

These levels represent key structural zones where buyers could potentially re-enter the market.

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Iran Conflict: What Are Markets Watching Now?

Markets remain extremely sensitive to any new developments related to the Iranian conflict.

The main risk factors investors are currently monitoring include:

• Possible escalation in military tensions in the region

• Any threats to oil transportation routes, particularly near the Strait of Hormuz

• Potential sanctions or geopolitical responses from global powers

Any disruption in these areas could quickly push oil prices higher again as supply risks increase.

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ผลกระทบต่อตลาดโดยรวม

Inflation Concerns Could Return

A sustained rise in oil prices may add renewed pressure on global inflation, potentially complicating central banks’ plans to ease monetary policy.

Safe-Haven Demand

Heightened geopolitical tensions often increase demand for safe-haven assets such as ทอง, which could benefit if the conflict intensifies further.

Equity Market Sensitivity

Higher energy prices could pressure sectors sensitive to fuel costs, including transportation and logistics, while energy companies may benefit from the higher price environment.

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แนวโน้มตลาด

At this stage, the oil market appears to be in a consolidation phase after the initial geopolitical spike.

If tensions escalate further, a renewed attempt to break the $100 level becomes increasingly likely. However, if geopolitical risks begin to ease, oil may enter a deeper correction before attempting another upward move.

For traders and investors, the coming days will be crucial as markets continue to react to both technical signals and geopolitical developments.

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จัดทำโดย: มูทัสม์ อาเดล
นักวิเคราะห์ตลาดอาวุโส – OneRoyal

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