O pormenor \u00e9 importante.<\/strong><\/p>\n- NFP de outubro: cerca de -105 mil postos de trabalho, fortemente distorcidos pelos efeitos do encerramento<\/p>\n
- NFP de novembro: cerca de +64 mil postos de trabalho, superando modestamente as expectativas<\/p>\n
- Taxa de desemprego: aumentou para 4,6%, o valor mais elevado dos \u00faltimos anos<\/p>\n
- Ganhos m\u00e9dios por hora: abrandamento para cerca de 0,1% m\/m<\/p>\n
\u00c0 primeira vista, a recupera\u00e7\u00e3o de novembro parece encorajadora. No entanto, se nos detivermos um pouco mais, a hist\u00f3ria mais geral \u00e9 a de um abrandamento do ritmo. A cria\u00e7\u00e3o de emprego \u00e9 mais fraca do que era, o desemprego est\u00e1 a aumentar e o crescimento dos sal\u00e1rios, o ponto de tens\u00e3o preferido da Fed, continua a arrefecer.<\/p>\n
Por outras palavras, o mercado de trabalho ainda est\u00e1 de p\u00e9, mas j\u00e1 n\u00e3o est\u00e1 a correr.<\/p>\n
Para os mercados, isso \u00e9 de facto bastante \u00fatil. Elimina o risco de infla\u00e7\u00e3o impulsionada pelo trabalho sem for\u00e7ar uma narrativa imediata de recess\u00e3o. A Fed pode dar-se ao luxo de ficar quieta, com um ar pensativo, e insistir mais uma vez que est\u00e1 \u201cdependente dos dados\u201d.\u201d<\/p>\n
O que nos leva diretamente ao IPC dos EUA.<\/p>\n
IPC: O \u00fanico n\u00famero que realmente importa esta semana<\/strong><\/p>\nCom a hist\u00f3ria do emprego a ser amplamente avaliada, a infla\u00e7\u00e3o assume um papel central.<\/p>\n
- IPC global (previsto): 3.0% y\/y<\/p>\n
- IPC subjacente (previsto): 3.2-3.3% y\/y, com sinais de nova modera\u00e7\u00e3o mensal<\/p>\n
Depois de um relat\u00f3rio sobre o trabalho que ofereceu garantias em vez de entusiasmo, o IPC carrega o \u00f3nus da prova. Uma impress\u00e3o mais suave validaria a ideia de que a desinfla\u00e7\u00e3o est\u00e1 lentamente a fazer o seu trabalho e manteria vivas as expectativas de corte de taxas. Um n\u00famero mais firme, no entanto, recordaria aos mercados que a \u00faltima milha da infla\u00e7\u00e3o continua teimosamente a subir.<\/p>\n
Conclus\u00f5es do mercado<\/strong><\/p>\nOs PFN n\u00e3o mudaram a hist\u00f3ria, aperfei\u00e7oaram-na.
\nA economia dos EUA est\u00e1 a abrandar, mas n\u00e3o a quebrar. O trabalho est\u00e1 a abrandar, mas n\u00e3o est\u00e1 a entrar em colapso. E a Fed est\u00e1 \u00e0 espera, pacientemente, que a infla\u00e7\u00e3o pisque primeiro.
\nAt\u00e9 que o IPC se pronuncie, \u00e9 prov\u00e1vel que os mercados se mantenham cautelosos, limitados e com opini\u00f5es discretas, tal como os pr\u00f3prios dados.<\/p>\n
De qualquer forma, at\u00e9 \u00e0 pr\u00f3xima, todos v\u00f3s, fa\u00e7am um com\u00e9rcio seguro!<\/p>\n
Por James Trescothick
\nDiretor de Estudos de Mercado e An\u00e1lise de Mercado<\/p>\n
Aviso de risco: Esta informa\u00e7\u00e3o destina-se apenas a fins educativos e n\u00e3o constitui um conselho de investimento. Os mercados financeiros envolvem riscos e o desempenho passado n\u00e3o \u00e9 indicativo de resultados futuros. Realize sempre a sua pr\u00f3pria investiga\u00e7\u00e3o e procure aconselhamento profissional antes de tomar decis\u00f5es de investimento.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
A dupla publica\u00e7\u00e3o de ontem do Non-Farm Payrolls deu aos mercados muito para mastigar, mesmo que n\u00e3o tenha resolvido a quest\u00e3o. No seu conjunto, os n\u00fameros apontam para um mercado de trabalho dos E.U.A. que est\u00e1 a arrefecer educadamente, em vez de se desmoronar. Os pormenores s\u00e3o importantes. - NFP de outubro: cerca de -105 mil postos de trabalho, fortemente distorcidos pelos efeitos do encerramento - novembro [...]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":23710,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[29,38],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24262","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-analysis","category-market-analysis"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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