{"id":23754,"date":"2025-06-26T09:56:44","date_gmt":"2025-06-26T09:56:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/?p=23754"},"modified":"2025-07-23T14:17:14","modified_gmt":"2025-07-23T14:17:14","slug":"market-update-june-26-2025-usd-weakness-takes-centre-stage","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/pt\/daily-analysis\/market-update-june-26-2025-usd-weakness-takes-centre-stage\/","title":{"rendered":"Atualiza\u00e7\u00e3o do mercado - 26 de junho de 2025: A fraqueza do d\u00f3lar \u00e9 o centro das aten\u00e7\u00f5es"},"content":{"rendered":"

Com a crescente preocupa\u00e7\u00e3o com a independ\u00eancia da Fed e um d\u00f3lar mais calmo, a narrativa do mercado est\u00e1 a mudar decisivamente a favor de um d\u00f3lar mais suave.<\/p>\n

D\u00f3lar cai para m\u00ednimos de v\u00e1rios anos com a incerteza da Reserva Federal<\/strong><\/h4>\n

O d\u00f3lar americano est\u00e1 a deslizar, sendo negociado perto dos seus n\u00edveis mais fracos desde o in\u00edcio de 2021. Seu decl\u00ednio acelerou ap\u00f3s relatos de que o presidente Trump est\u00e1 considerando uma substitui\u00e7\u00e3o antecipada do presidente do Fed Powell, um sinal impl\u00edcito de uma mudan\u00e7a mais dovish.<\/p>\n

- \u00cdndice do d\u00f3lar (DXY): Caiu para um m\u00ednimo de tr\u00eas anos depois de cair ~ 0.6% nas not\u00edcias.<\/p>\n

- Mercados cambiais: O euro e a libra esterlina subiram ~0,7%; o franco su\u00ed\u00e7o e o iene tamb\u00e9m foram fortes, com o EUR\/USD no seu n\u00edvel mais elevado desde 2021 e o USD\/JPY a ultrapassar recentemente o n\u00edvel 143.<\/p>\n

Principais factores subjacentes \u00e0 mudan\u00e7a<\/strong><\/h4>\n

1. Ru\u00eddo pol\u00edtico em torno da lideran\u00e7a da Fed<\/p>\n

Os relatos de que Trump est\u00e1 a ponderar uma substitui\u00e7\u00e3o de Powell antes do prazo previsto, potencialmente at\u00e9 setembro, desencadearam receios de cortes nas taxas de juro por motivos pol\u00edticos, minando a credibilidade da Fed.<\/p>\n

2. Os decisores pol\u00edticos d\u00e3o a entender que est\u00e3o a ser negligentes<\/p>\n

As recentes observa\u00e7\u00f5es de Powell no Congresso foram cautelosas - ainda n\u00e3o se comprometeu com cortes, mas est\u00e1 aberto a ac\u00e7\u00f5es se a infla\u00e7\u00e3o arrefecer. Os mercados interpretaram este facto como uma margem para flexibiliza\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n

3. Rota\u00e7\u00e3o de capitais de ref\u00fagio para outras moedas<\/p>\n

O euro, a libra esterlina e v\u00e1rias moedas asi\u00e1ticas est\u00e3o a capitalizar, impulsionadas pela fraqueza do d\u00f3lar, incerteza tarif\u00e1ria e mudan\u00e7as geopol\u00edticas.<\/p>\n

Olhando para o futuro<\/strong><\/h4>\n

- Observa\u00e7\u00e3o de dados: Bens dur\u00e1veis, infla\u00e7\u00e3o PCE, relat\u00f3rios de emprego continuam a ser fundamentais. Os dados de arrefecimento podem refor\u00e7ar as apostas do mercado nos cortes de taxas em julho.<\/p>\n

- Geopol\u00edtica & Tarifas: O prazo de 9 de julho para os direitos aduaneiros entre os EUA e a UE aproxima-se - qualquer rutura nas conversa\u00e7\u00f5es pode complicar a narrativa .<\/p>\n

- Sinais da Fed: As aten\u00e7\u00f5es do mercado centrar-se-\u00e3o no pr\u00f3ximo testemunho de Powell e na reuni\u00e3o de julho da Reserva Federal. Qualquer mudan\u00e7a no sentido de uma atitude dovishness baseada em evid\u00eancias solidificar\u00e1 a suavidade do USD.<\/p>\n

Conclus\u00e3o<\/strong><\/h4>\n

A conflu\u00eancia da press\u00e3o pol\u00edtica sobre a Reserva Federal, os tons dovish dos decisores pol\u00edticos e os fracos sinais t\u00e9cnicos desencadearam um recuo generalizado do d\u00f3lar dos E.U.A.. Outras moedas importantes e os activos dos mercados emergentes est\u00e3o a beneficiar do vento de cauda, enquanto o ouro e as ac\u00e7\u00f5es dos E.U.A. est\u00e3o a encontrar uma posi\u00e7\u00e3o relativa. As pr\u00f3ximas impress\u00f5es de dados e as comunica\u00e7\u00f5es do Fed ser\u00e3o fundamentais. Por enquanto, a mensagem \u00e9 clara: o cansa\u00e7o do d\u00f3lar \u00e9 real e est\u00e1 a alterar os fluxos de carteira em todo o mundo.<\/p>\n

At\u00e9 \u00e0 pr\u00f3xima vez, todos voc\u00eas negoceiam em seguran\u00e7a!<\/p>\n

Por James Trescothick
\nDiretor de Estudos e An\u00e1lises de Mercado<\/p>\n

Aviso de risco: Esta informa\u00e7\u00e3o destina-se apenas a fins educativos e n\u00e3o constitui um conselho de investimento. Os mercados financeiros envolvem riscos e o desempenho passado n\u00e3o \u00e9 indicativo de resultados futuros. Realize sempre a sua pr\u00f3pria investiga\u00e7\u00e3o e procure aconselhamento profissional antes de tomar decis\u00f5es de investimento.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Com a crescente preocupa\u00e7\u00e3o com a independ\u00eancia do Fed e um d\u00f3lar mais calmo, a narrativa do mercado est\u00e1 mudando decisivamente em favor de um d\u00f3lar mais suave. D\u00f3lar afunda para m\u00ednimos de v\u00e1rios anos com a incerteza do Fed O d\u00f3lar americano est\u00e1 deslizando, sendo negociado perto de seus n\u00edveis mais fracos desde o in\u00edcio de 2021. Seu decl\u00ednio acelerou ap\u00f3s relatos de que o presidente Trump est\u00e1 considerando um in\u00edcio [...]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":23861,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[29,38],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23754","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-analysis","category-market-analysis"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTrading News | Market Update by OneRoyal<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"USD Weakness Takes Centre Stage. The U.S. dollar is sliding trading near its weakest levels since early 2021. 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