{"id":24285,"date":"2025-12-30T09:10:19","date_gmt":"2025-12-30T09:10:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/?p=24285"},"modified":"2025-12-30T09:10:19","modified_gmt":"2025-12-30T09:10:19","slug":"2025-market-review-liberation-day-a-market-tantrum-and-the-bull-that-didnt-care","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/ms\/daily-analysis\/2025-market-review-liberation-day-a-market-tantrum-and-the-bull-that-didnt-care\/","title":{"rendered":"Ulasan Pasaran 2025: Hari Pembebasan, Kekecohan Pasaran, dan Kekecohan yang Tidak Peduli"},"content":{"rendered":"

Jika tahun 2025 mengajar pelabur sesuatu, ia adalah seperti berikut: pasaran adalah dramatik, tetapi tidak sentimental.
\nIni merupakan tahun yang penuh dengan kejutan yang mendadak, pemulihan yang lebih cepat, dan kesedaran yang semakin meningkat bahawa panik biasanya mahal manakala kesabaran, yang menjengkelkan, masih membuahkan hasil. Detik-detik penentu datang lebih awal, kuat, dan sedikit tidak diundang.<\/p>\n

Mari kita imbas kembali episod yang bertajuk Hari Pembebasan dengan penuh optimistik.<\/p>\n

Hari Pembebasan: Apabila Pembebasan Terasa Seperti Panik<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201c"Hari Pembebasan" kedengaran seperti hadiah. Pihak pasar membukanya dan segera memeriksa resitnya.<\/p>\n

Pelabur sebaliknya mendapat tarif, tarif yang besar, tarif yang terus terang, dan tarif yang tidak berbelah bahagi secara politik. Rantaian bekalan bergegar, andaian perdagangan goyah, dan pasaran ekuiti bertindak balas dalam satu-satunya bahasa yang mereka tahu apabila terkejut: jual dahulu, analisis kemudian.<\/p>\n

Volatiliti melonjak naik. Siklikal menjadi tidak menentu. Pengulas menemui semula perkataan "stagflasi" dengan penuh semangat yang meresahkan. Untuk beberapa sesi, ia terasa seperti risiko dasar telah menegaskan semula dirinya sebagai watak utama.<\/p>\n

Dan kemudian, hampir secara tidak menyusahkan, pasaran menjadi tenang.<\/p>\n

Mengapa? Kerana sebaik sahaja kejutan itu berlalu, pelabur melakukan apa yang selalu mereka lakukan apabila ketakutan itu meletihkan dirinya sendiri: mereka mengira angka-angka tersebut. Tarif adalah inflasi, ya tetapi juga boleh dirunding. Pertumbuhan merosot, bukan musnah. Dan yang paling penting, kunci kira-kira korporat cukup kukuh untuk menyerap ketidakselesaan.<\/p>\n

Hari Pembebasan tidak membebaskan pasaran, ia menguji tekanan mereka. Dan sebaik sahaja ujian itu lulus, keyakinan kembali dengan minat.<\/p>\n

Pasaran Bull: Tidak Terkesan dengan Drama<\/strong><\/p>\n

Perhimpunan yang menyusul itu tidak sopan. Ia tidak henti-henti.<\/p>\n

Pasaran menaik ini mempunyai sifat yang luar biasa: ia enggan panik dua kali. Setiap goncangan berkaitan tarif menjadi peluang pembelian. Setiap ketakutan makro disambut dengan respons yang sama, "tunjukkan saya pendapatan."\u201c<\/p>\n

Dan pendapatan muncul.<\/p>\n

AI tidak lagi menjadi kata kunci dan mula menjadi berita margin. Peningkatan produktiviti beralih daripada slaid persidangan kepada laporan suku tahunan. Kemelesetan yang telah lama ditakuti menjadi makhluk ekonomi yang paling jarang berlaku: yang tidak pernah tiba.<\/p>\n

Penilaian semakin meningkat, seperti yang selalu berlaku apabila optimisme menjadi selesa, tetapi ini bukanlah kegembiraan membuta tuli. Ia adalah ketahanan harga pasaran, bukan kesempurnaan.
\nLembu jantan itu tidak menyerang, sebaliknya mencondongkan badan ke hadapan dan terus berjalan.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Emas dan Perak: Panik Dahulu, Pengesahan Kemudian<\/strong><\/p>\n

Jika ekuiti akhirnya mengabaikan Hari Pembebasan, logam berharga tidak menunggu untuk jaminan.<\/p>\n

Emas melonjak apabila tarif membangkitkan semula ketakutan lama: bahawa risiko politik bergerak lebih pantas daripada kejelasan dasar. Bank pusat, yang sudah berminat dengan pembeli, telah menggandakan pelaburan. Pelabur ingat bahawa emas bukan tentang krisis tetapi tentang kredibiliti. Dan kredibiliti, setelah dipersoalkan, akan dikenakan bayaran premium.<\/p>\n

Perak menyusul dengan kurang anggun dan lebih bersemangat.<\/p>\n

Permintaan perindustrian bertembung dengan kebimbangan monetari, dan perak akhirnya terlepas daripada peranannya yang lama sebagai sepupu emas yang diabaikan. Bekalan yang ketat, infrastruktur hijau, dan momentum spekulatif bergabung menjadi rali yang sama sekali tidak halus.<\/p>\n

Emas mencipta sejarah.<\/p>\n

Perak mengeluarkan bunyi bising.<\/p>\n

Kedua-duanya masuk akal.<\/p>\n

Gambaran Lebih Besar: Pasaran dengan Fius Pendek dan Ingatan Panjang<\/strong><\/p>\n

Apa yang mentakrifkan 2025 bukanlah ketenangan, tetapi daya tahan.<\/p>\n

Pasaran panik apabila terkejut.<\/p>\n

Dipulihkan apabila dimaklumkan.<\/p>\n

Dan bangkit semula apabila diyakinkan.<\/p>\n

Pelabur tidak mengabaikan risiko; mereka hanya berhenti membiarkan risiko menguasai portfolio. Ketegangan perdagangan, beban hutang dan ketidakpastian geopolitik kekal tetapi ia menjadi pembolehubah, bukan keputusan.
\nEkuiti mencatatkan pertumbuhan.<\/p>\n

Logam memberikan kepercayaan.<\/p>\n

Cash akhirnya teringat ia sepatutnya digunakan.<\/p>\n

Pemikiran Akhir: Drama Bersifat Sementara, Trend Tidak Bersifat Sementara<\/strong><\/p>\n

Hari Pembebasan mengingatkan kita bahawa pasaran lebih membenci ketidakpastian daripada berita buruk. Peningkatan harga membuktikan bahawa asas-asas masih penting. Emas dan perak mengesahkan bahawa kepercayaan, setelah digoncang, tidak akan dipulihkan sepenuhnya, hanya akan dinilai semula.<\/p>\n

Tahun 2025 bising. Kadangkala tidak masuk akal. Dan menghairankan membina.<\/p>\n

Pengajarannya?<\/p>\n

Pasaran mungkin panik apabila mendapat berita utama tetapi mereka melabur dalam hasil.<\/p>\n

Dan pada tahun 2025, hasilnya menang.<\/p>\n

Bagaimanapun, sehingga kali seterusnya, anda semua berdagang dengan selamat!<\/p>\n

Oleh James Trescothick
\nKetua Penyelidikan Pasaran dan Analisis Pasaran<\/p>\n

Penafian Risiko: Maklumat ini adalah untuk tujuan pendidikan sahaja dan bukan merupakan nasihat pelaburan. Pasaran kewangan melibatkan risiko, dan prestasi masa lalu tidak menunjukkan keputusan masa depan. Sentiasa menjalankan penyelidikan anda sendiri dan dapatkan nasihat profesional sebelum membuat keputusan pelaburan.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jika tahun 2025 mengajar pelabur sesuatu, ia adalah seperti berikut: pasaran adalah dramatik, tetapi tidak sentimental. Ini adalah tahun yang penuh dengan kejutan mendadak, pemulihan yang lebih cepat, dan kesedaran yang semakin meningkat bahawa panik biasanya mahal manakala kesabaran, yang menjengkelkan, masih membuahkan hasil. Detik-detik penentu datang lebih awal, kuat, dan sedikit tidak diundang. Mari kita kembali ke episod yang bertajuk Hari Pembebasan dengan optimistik. [\u2026]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":24068,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[29,38],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24285","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-analysis","category-market-analysis"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n2025 Market Review: Liberation Day, a Market Tantrum, and the Bull That Didn\u2019t Care - OneRoyal News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/ms\/daily-analysis\/2025-market-review-liberation-day-a-market-tantrum-and-the-bull-that-didnt-care\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ms_MY\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2025 Market Review: Liberation Day, a Market Tantrum, and the Bull That Didn\u2019t Care - OneRoyal News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"If 2025 taught investors anything, it was this: markets are dramatic, but not sentimental. 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This was a year of sharp shocks, faster recoveries, and a growing realisation that panic is usually expensive while patience, irritatingly, still pays. The defining moments came early, loud, and slightly uninvited. Let\u2019s rewind to the episode optimistically titled Liberation Day. 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