{"id":24048,"date":"2025-09-29T13:49:02","date_gmt":"2025-09-29T13:49:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/?p=24048"},"modified":"2025-09-29T13:49:02","modified_gmt":"2025-09-29T13:49:02","slug":"stocks-climb-gold-roars-dollar-dips-all-eyes-on-u-s-shutdown-and-jobs-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/ms\/daily-analysis\/stocks-climb-gold-roars-dollar-dips-all-eyes-on-u-s-shutdown-and-jobs-report\/","title":{"rendered":"Saham Meningkat, Emas Meraung, Dolar Dips \u2014 Semua Mata Tertumpu pada Penutupan AS dan Laporan Pekerjaan"},"content":{"rendered":"

Kemas Kini Pasaran \u2014 29 September 2025<\/h2>\n

Saham Meningkat, Emas Meraung, Dolar Dips \u2014 Semua Mata Tertumpu pada Penutupan AS dan Laporan Pekerjaan<\/strong><\/h2>\n
\n

\u26a1 Tajuk Berita & Reaksi Pasaran Hari Ini<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n

    Ekuiti global meningkat apabila selera risiko kembali pulih, didorong oleh keyakinan terhadap pemotongan kadar AS selanjutnya dan kekuatan dolar yang berkurangan.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    emas<\/strong> melonjak ke paras tertinggi baharu di atas $3,800 setiap auns<\/strong>, menunggang pada jangkaan monetari dovish dan dolar yang lebih lemah.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Sebaliknya, yang dolar AS<\/strong> tergelincir apabila harga pasaran lebih rendah daripada Fed, merumitkan momentum jangka pendeknya.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Pasaran saham Teluk dan Timur Tengah juga mencatatkan keuntungan, dirangsang oleh jangkaan pemotongan kadar AS dan persekitaran luaran yang menggalakkan.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Harga minyak jatuh berikutan kebimbangan bekalan baharu \u2014 wilayah Kurdistan Iraq menyambung semula eksport, dan OPEC+ dijangka meluluskan peningkatan pengeluaran pada November.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    \n

    \ud83d\udd0d Tema Besar Memacu Pergerakan<\/h3>\n

    1. Ketidakpastian Penutupan Kerajaan AS<\/strong><\/h4>\n

    Penggubal undang-undang di Washington berada di bawah tekanan untuk meluluskan rang undang-undang pembiayaan jangka pendek menjelang 1 Oktober. Jika penutupan berlaku, ia boleh menangguhkan pengeluaran data ekonomi kritikal seperti laporan gaji bukan ladang September - yang akan menyebabkan Fed menavigasi dalam kegelapan menjelang mesyuarat seterusnya.<\/p>\n

    Penganalisis ambil perhatian bahawa penutupan yang berlarutan mungkin sedikit menjejaskan pertumbuhan KDNK (cth, -0.1 mata peratusan seminggu) tetapi boleh mempunyai kesan yang terlalu besar terhadap keyakinan dan turun naik pasaran.<\/p>\n

    2. Jangkaan Potongan Kadar & Pengawasan Fed<\/strong><\/h4>\n

    Pasaran meletakkan harga tinggi dalam satu lagi pemotongan Rizab Persekutuan pada bulan Oktober (\u2248 90% kebarangkalian) dan pemotongan kedua pada bulan Disember (\u2248 65%) mengikut Alat CME FedWatch.<\/p>\n

    Namun, Fed menghadapi keseimbangan yang halus: inflasi kekal di atas sasaran, dan beberapa data terkini lebih kukuh daripada yang dijangkakan. Laporan pekerjaan AS yang akan datang akan menjadi penting dalam membimbing jangkaan pasaran.<\/p>\n

    3. Komoditi & Tekanan Tenaga<\/strong><\/h4>\n
      \n
    • \n

      Minyak<\/strong> berada di bawah tekanan \u2014 wilayah Kurdistan Iraq telah meneruskan aliran selepas lebih 2 tahun, menyuntik 180,000\u2013190,000 tong sehari ke dalam pasaran.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    • \n

      OPEC+ dijangka bersetuju untuk meningkatkan pengeluaran sebanyak ~137,000 tong sehari pada bulan November, mungkin akan melemahkan lagi naratif kenaikan harga minyak.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    • \n

      Kelemahan dalam tenaga membantu menyeret tenaga yang lebih luas dan ekuiti berkaitan komoditi lebih rendah, walaupun logam seperti emas melonjak.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      4. Pasaran Serantau Menaiki Angin Ekor AS<\/strong><\/h4>\n

      Pasaran Teluk meningkat hari ini, dengan indeks Arab Saudi mencatatkan keuntungan sebanyak ~1.8%. Pergerakan itu terikat secara langsung dengan keyakinan pelabur mengenai pemotongan kadar AS dan pelonggaran monetari.<\/p>\n

      Di tempat lain, saham Eropah melonjak naik, disokong oleh kekuatan dalam sektor teknologi dan penjagaan kesihatan, walaupun dengan penutupan AS menjadi tumpuan.<\/p>\n

      \n

      \ud83d\udcca Teknikal & Tinjauan Pasaran<\/h3>\n

      Emas (XAU\/USD):<\/strong>
      Masa lalu penembusan emas $3,800<\/strong> momentum pelekap isyarat. Zon sokongan jangka pendek untuk ditonton: ~$3,750, $3,700. Rintangan mungkin muncul berhampiran $3,830\u2013$3,850<\/strong>. Memandangkan hasil sebenar yang lemah dan jangkaan kadar dovish, aliran menaik boleh berterusan, selagi kelemahan dolar kekal.<\/p>\n

      Dolar AS & DXY:<\/strong>
      Dolar menghadapi masalah besar. Ketidakupayaan indeks untuk menuntut semula 98<\/strong> mencadangkan ia mungkin kekal tertekan. Melainkan data AS mengejutkan, penurunan selanjutnya nampaknya berkemungkinan, yang akan menyokong aliran emas dan komoditi.<\/p>\n

      Ekuiti & Sentimen:<\/strong>
      Saham global menunjukkan arah aliran menaik, tetapi kebimbangan penilaian, bersama-sama dengan risiko makro (penutupan, dasar tarif, inflasi), membayangkan bahawa turun naik boleh meningkat. Laporan pekerjaan AS seterusnya dan pendapatan korporat akan mempunyai kepentingan yang lebih besar.<\/p>\n

      \n

      \ud83e\udded Apa Untuk Tonton Minggu Ini<\/h3>\n
      \n
      \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
      Peristiwa<\/th>\nKepentingan<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
      Gaji Bukan Ladang AS & Pengangguran<\/td>\nBoleh mengesahkan atau menggagalkan jangkaan pangsi Fed.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      PMI & Data Pengilangan (AS, Eropah, China)<\/td>\nAkan membantu menilai momentum pertumbuhan global.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Rang Undang-undang Pembiayaan Kerajaan AS<\/td>\nMenentukan sama ada pasaran menghadapi pemadaman data.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Pendapatan Korporat (terutamanya teknologi)<\/td>\nKunci untuk mengekalkan trend ekuiti.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Mesyuarat OPEC+ & Laporan Bekalan Minyak<\/td>\nBoleh menukar tekanan tenaga kepada pergerakan komoditi yang lebih luas.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
      \n

      \ud83d\udd1a Fikiran Akhir<\/h3>\n

      hidup 29 September 2025<\/strong>, pasaran memaparkan postur "risiko atas" klasik \u2014 ekuiti meningkat, dolar gelongsor dan caj emas ke hadapan. Namun, keyakinan ini terletak pada asas yang halus: hasil dasar fiskal AS, laporan buruh yang akan datang, dan cara Fed bertindak balas.<\/p>\n

      Penembusan emas adalah menarik, tetapi ia terdedah kepada kejutan dari segi inflasi atau data. Postur lembut dolar mungkin berterusan melainkan kejutan makro mengalihkan sentimen. Dan pasaran ekuiti, walaupun rancak, boleh menghadapi goncangan jika dasar atau pendapatan mengecewakan.<\/p>\n

      Pendek kata: kita berada dalam persekitaran yang berisiko tinggi. Naratif kekal lancar \u2014 dan hari-hari yang akan datang mungkin membentuk semula laluan untuk Q4 dan ke 2026.<\/p>\n

      \n

      Oleh Motasm Adel<\/strong>
      Penyelidik dan Penganalisis Pasaran<\/em><\/p>\n

      Penafian Risiko:<\/strong> Maklumat ini adalah untuk tujuan pendidikan sahaja dan bukan merupakan nasihat pelaburan. Pasaran kewangan melibatkan risiko, dan prestasi masa lalu tidak menunjukkan keputusan masa depan. Sentiasa menjalankan penyelidikan anda sendiri dan dapatkan nasihat profesional sebelum membuat keputusan pelaburan.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Kemas Kini Pasaran \u2014 29 September 2025 Saham Meningkat, Emas Bergemuruh, Kejatuhan Dolar \u2014 Semua Mata Tertumpu pada Penutupan AS dan Laporan Pekerjaan \u26a1 Tajuk Berita & Reaksi Pasaran Hari Ini Ekuiti global meningkat apabila selera risiko kembali pulih, didorong oleh keyakinan terhadap penurunan kadar AS selanjutnya dan kekuatan dolar yang berkurangan. Emas melonjak ke paras tertinggi baharu melebihi $3,800 seauns, menunggang [\u2026]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":24049,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[29,31,38,34,33,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24048","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-analysis","category-economic-calendar-events","category-market-analysis","category-markets-to-watch","category-special-reports","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nStocks Climb, Gold Roars, Dollar Dips \u2014 All Eyes on U.S. Shutdown and Jobs Report - OneRoyal News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/OneRoyal.news\/th\/daily-analysis\/stocks-climb-gold-roars-dollar-dips-all-eyes-on-u-s-shutdown-and-jobs-report\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ms_MY\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Stocks Climb, Gold Roars, Dollar Dips \u2014 All Eyes on U.S. Shutdown and Jobs Report - OneRoyal News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Market Update \u2014 29 September 2025 Stocks Climb, Gold Roars, Dollar Dips \u2014 All Eyes on U.S. Shutdown and Jobs Report \u26a1 Today\u2019s Headlines & Market Reaction Global equities rose as risk\u2010appetite returned, fueled by optimism over further U.S. rate cuts and easing dollar strength. 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