{"id":24454,"date":"2026-03-12T09:49:39","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T09:49:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/?p=24454"},"modified":"2026-03-12T09:49:39","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T09:49:39","slug":"market-update-12th-march-2026-oil-is-rising-and-markets-are-finally-paying-attention","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/id\/daily-analysis\/market-update-12th-march-2026-oil-is-rising-and-markets-are-finally-paying-attention\/","title":{"rendered":"Pembaruan Pasar: 12 Maret 2026 - Minyak Naik - Dan Pasar Akhirnya Memperhatikan"},"content":{"rendered":"

Selama berbulan-bulan, pasar terobsesi dengan AI, penurunan suku bunga, dan narasi soft landing.
\nSekarang minyak mengingatkan semua orang bahwa dunia masih menggunakan energi.<\/p>\n

Minyak mentah telah melonjak kembali ke arah $100 per barel, didorong bukan oleh kejutan permintaan tetapi oleh geopolitik khususnya konflik yang meningkat yang melibatkan Iran dan meningkatnya gangguan pada pengiriman melalui Selat Hormuz, salah satu titik penghalang minyak terpenting di planet ini.<\/p>\n

Ketika Selat Malaka bersin, ekonomi global pun ikut terserang flu.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ini Bukan Sekadar Lonjakan Minyak Biasa<\/p>\n

Pergerakan minyak baru-baru ini tidak berasal dari berita utama OPEC atau penyesuaian pasokan rutin.<\/p>\n

Ini berasal dari gangguan yang sebenarnya.<\/p>\n

Serangan terhadap kapal tanker dan infrastruktur energi di seluruh Teluk telah menimbulkan kekhawatiran serius tentang aliran minyak melalui wilayah tersebut, rute yang biasanya membawa sekitar seperlima pasokan minyak global.<\/p>\n

Itulah mengapa pergerakan minyak begitu tajam.<\/p>\n

Pasar tidak keberatan dengan harga yang lebih tinggi.
\nMereka benci ketidakpastian tentang pasokan.<\/p>\n

Dan saat ini, gambaran pasokan semakin suram.<\/p>\n

Pemerintah Sudah Meraih Alat-alat Darurat<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tanggapannya sudah bisa ditebak.<\/p>\n

Badan Energi Internasional telah mengkoordinasikan pelepasan cadangan strategis secara besar-besaran, sekitar 400 juta barel, dalam upaya untuk menstabilkan pasar.<\/p>\n

Namun, rilis darurat jarang sekali menyelesaikan masalah yang sebenarnya.<\/p>\n

Mereka mengulur waktu.<\/p>\n

Jika pengiriman melalui Hormuz tetap terganggu, pasar pada akhirnya harus menghargai kenyataan itu.<\/p>\n

Masalah Inflasi Baru Saja Datang Kembali?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Selama setahun terakhir, pasar telah merayakan gagasan bahwa inflasi memudar, dan bank-bank sentral akan segera memangkas suku bunga.<\/p>\n

Reli minyak yang berkelanjutan memperumit cerita itu dengan sangat cepat.<\/p>\n

Energi memberi energi pada segala sesuatu:<\/p>\n

- transportasi<\/p>\n

- manufaktur<\/p>\n

- pertanian<\/p>\n

- penerbangan<\/p>\n

Bahkan kenaikan moderat pada minyak dapat mengguncang seluruh gambaran inflasi.<\/p>\n

Bank sentral tidak suka memotong suku bunga ketika harga energi naik.<\/p>\n

Pasar Saham Masih Berpura-pura Tidak Terjadi Apa-apa<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sejauh ini, ekuitas bereaksi dengan campuran optimisme dan penolakan.<\/p>\n

Saham-saham goyah ketika minyak melonjak... lalu dengan cepat meyakinkan diri mereka sendiri bahwa itu hanya sementara.<\/p>\n

Terkadang mereka benar.<\/p>\n

Namun, sejarah cukup jelas dalam hal ini: guncangan minyak yang berkelanjutan pada akhirnya muncul dalam pertumbuhan, inflasi, atau keduanya.
\nBiasanya keduanya.<\/p>\n

Tiga Hal yang Penting Sekarang<\/strong><\/p>\n

Jika minyak terus meningkat, investor harus memperhatikan tiga sinyal dengan cermat:<\/p>\n

1. Ekspektasi inflasi<\/p>\n

Jika energi mulai mendorong inflasi lebih tinggi lagi, penurunan suku bunga akan semakin jauh.<\/p>\n

2. Pasar kredit<\/p>\n

Guncangan energi cenderung muncul di sini sebelum muncul di ekuitas.<\/p>\n

3. Arus pengiriman melalui Hormuz<\/p>\n

Itulah kisah yang sebenarnya. Segala sesuatu yang lain adalah kebisingan.<\/p>\n

Jika Selat menjadi stabil, minyak akan mengendap.<\/p>\n

Jika tidak, pasar mungkin telah meremehkan risiko ini.<\/p>\n

Intinya<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pasar menghabiskan enam bulan terakhir dengan mengkhawatirkan disrupsi teknologi.<\/p>\n

Sekarang mereka diingatkan tentang gangguan geopolitik.<\/p>\n

Oli tidak perlu mencapai $150 untuk menjadi penting.<\/p>\n

Harga harus tetap tinggi cukup lama untuk merusak narasi nyaman yang selama ini diandalkan oleh para investor.<\/p>\n

Dan saat ini, hal tersebut mulai terlihat sebagai sebuah kemungkinan yang nyata.<\/p>\n

Sampai jumpa lagi, semoga Anda semua trading dengan aman!<\/p>\n

Oleh James Trescothick
\nKepala Riset Pasar dan Analisis Pasar<\/p>\n

Penafian Risiko: Informasi ini hanya untuk tujuan edukasi dan bukan merupakan saran investasi. Pasar keuangan mengandung risiko, dan kinerja masa lalu tidak menunjukkan hasil di masa depan. Selalu lakukan penelitian Anda sendiri dan mintalah nasihat profesional sebelum mengambil keputusan investasi.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Selama berbulan-bulan pasar terobsesi dengan AI, penurunan suku bunga, dan narasi soft-landing. Sekarang minyak mengingatkan semua orang bahwa dunia masih menggunakan energi. Minyak mentah telah melonjak kembali ke arah $100 per barel, didorong bukan oleh kejutan permintaan tetapi oleh geopolitik khususnya konflik yang meningkat yang melibatkan Iran dan gangguan yang meningkat terhadap pengiriman [...]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":23714,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[29,38],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24454","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-analysis","category-market-analysis"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMarket Update: 12th March 2026- Oil Is Rising \u2014 And Markets Are Finally Paying Attention - OneRoyal News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/id\/daily-analysis\/market-update-12th-march-2026-oil-is-rising-and-markets-are-finally-paying-attention\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"id_ID\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Market Update: 12th March 2026- Oil Is Rising \u2014 And Markets Are Finally Paying Attention - OneRoyal News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"For months the market has been obsessed with AI, rate cuts, and the soft-landing narrative. 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