Detail itu penting.<\/strong><\/p>\n- NFP Oktober: sekitar -105 ribu pekerjaan, sangat terdistorsi oleh efek shutdown<\/p>\n
- NFP bulan November: sekitar +64k pekerjaan, sedikit mengalahkan ekspektasi<\/p>\n
- Tingkat pengangguran: naik menjadi 4,6%, tertinggi dalam beberapa tahun terakhir<\/p>\n
- Penghasilan rata-rata per jam: menurun menjadi sekitar 0,1% m\/m<\/p>\n
Di permukaan, rebound di bulan November terlihat menggembirakan. Namun, gali lebih dalam lagi, dan cerita yang lebih luas adalah salah satu momentum yang melambat. Penciptaan lapangan kerja lebih lemah dari sebelumnya, pengangguran beringsut lebih tinggi, dan pertumbuhan upah, titik stres yang disukai Fed terus mendingin.<\/p>\n
Dengan kata lain, pasar tenaga kerja masih bertahan, tetapi tidak lagi berlari kencang.<\/p>\n
Bagi pasar, hal ini sebenarnya cukup berguna. Hal ini menghilangkan risiko inflasi yang digerakkan oleh tenaga kerja tanpa memaksakan narasi resesi segera. The Fed dapat duduk diam, terlihat bijaksana, dan bersikeras sekali lagi bahwa mereka \u201cbergantung pada data.\u201d<\/p>\n
Hal ini membawa kita pada CPI AS.<\/p>\n
CPI: Satu-satunya Angka yang Sangat Penting Minggu Ini<\/strong><\/p>\nDengan kisah pekerjaan yang sekarang sudah banyak diketahui, inflasi menjadi pusat perhatian.<\/p>\n
- IHK utama (diperkirakan): 3,0% y\/y<\/p>\n
- CPI inti (diperkirakan): 3,2-3,3% y\/y, dengan tanda-tanda moderasi bulanan lebih lanjut<\/p>\n
Setelah laporan tenaga kerja yang memberikan kepastian daripada kegembiraan, CPI membawa beban pembuktian. Angka yang lebih lemah akan memvalidasi gagasan bahwa disinflasi perlahan-lahan melakukan tugasnya dan menjaga ekspektasi penurunan suku bunga tetap hidup. Namun, angka yang lebih kuat akan mengingatkan pasar bahwa jalan terakhir untuk mencapai inflasi masih menanjak.<\/p>\n
Bawa Pulang Pasar<\/strong><\/p>\nNFP tidak mengubah cerita, mereka hanya menyempurnakannya.
\nPerekonomian AS melambat tetapi tidak hancur. Tenaga kerja melonggar tetapi tidak runtuh. Dan The Fed menunggu, dengan sabar, inflasi untuk berkedip terlebih dahulu.
\nSampai CPI berbicara, pasar cenderung tetap berhati-hati, terikat pada kisaran, dan tidak banyak beropini, seperti halnya data itu sendiri.<\/p>\n
Sampai jumpa lagi, selamat bertransaksi!<\/p>\n
Oleh James Trescothick
\nKepala Riset Pasar dan Analisis Pasar<\/p>\n
Penafian Risiko: Informasi ini hanya untuk tujuan edukasi dan bukan merupakan saran investasi. Pasar keuangan mengandung risiko, dan kinerja masa lalu tidak menunjukkan hasil di masa depan. Selalu lakukan penelitian Anda sendiri dan mintalah nasihat profesional sebelum mengambil keputusan investasi.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Rilis data Non-Farm Payrolls double-header kemarin memberikan banyak hal untuk dikunyah oleh pasar, meskipun tidak cukup untuk menyelesaikan argumen. Secara keseluruhan, angka-angka tersebut menunjukkan pasar tenaga kerja AS yang mendingin dengan sopan, bukannya runtuh. Detailnya penting. - NFP Oktober: sekitar -105 ribu pekerjaan, sangat terdistorsi oleh efek shutdown - November [...]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":23710,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[29,38],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24262","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-analysis","category-market-analysis"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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