{"id":24048,"date":"2025-09-29T13:49:02","date_gmt":"2025-09-29T13:49:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/?p=24048"},"modified":"2025-09-29T13:49:02","modified_gmt":"2025-09-29T13:49:02","slug":"stocks-climb-gold-roars-dollar-dips-all-eyes-on-u-s-shutdown-and-jobs-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/id\/daily-analysis\/stocks-climb-gold-roars-dollar-dips-all-eyes-on-u-s-shutdown-and-jobs-report\/","title":{"rendered":"Saham Naik, Emas Mengaum, Dolar Turun - Semua Mata Tertuju pada Shutdown AS dan Laporan Pekerjaan"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pembaruan Pasar - 29 September 2025<\/h2>\n

Saham Naik, Emas Mengaum, Dolar Turun - Semua Mata Tertuju pada Shutdown AS dan Laporan Pekerjaan<\/strong><\/h2>\n
\n

\u26a1 Berita Utama & Reaksi Pasar Hari Ini<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n

    Ekuitas global naik karena risk-appetite kembali, didorong oleh optimisme atas penurunan suku bunga AS lebih lanjut dan melemahnya kekuatan dolar.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Emas<\/strong> melonjak ke level tertinggi baru di atas $3.800 per ons<\/strong>memanfaatkan ekspektasi moneter yang dovish dan dolar yang lebih lemah.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Sebaliknya, sistem Dolar AS<\/strong> tergelincir karena pasar memperhitungkan lebih banyak pelonggaran dari The Fed, sehingga mempersulit momentum jangka pendeknya.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Pasar saham Teluk dan Timur Tengah juga membukukan keuntungan, didorong oleh ekspektasi penurunan suku bunga AS dan lingkungan eksternal yang menguntungkan.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Harga minyak turun karena kekhawatiran pasokan baru - wilayah Kurdistan Irak melanjutkan ekspor, dan OPEC+ diperkirakan akan menyetujui kenaikan produksi di bulan November.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    \n

    \ud83d\udd0d Tema Besar yang Mendorong Pergerakan<\/h3>\n

    1. Ketidakpastian Penutupan Pemerintah AS<\/strong><\/h4>\n

    Para anggota parlemen di Washington berada di bawah tekanan untuk meloloskan rancangan undang-undang pendanaan jangka pendek pada 1 Oktober. Jika shutdown terjadi, hal ini dapat menunda rilis data ekonomi penting seperti laporan nonfarm payrolls bulan September - yang akan membuat The Fed menavigasi dalam kegelapan menjelang pertemuan berikutnya.<\/p>\n

    Para analis mencatat bahwa shutdown yang berlarut-larut dapat sedikit mengurangi pertumbuhan PDB (misalnya, -0,1 poin persentase per minggu), tetapi dapat memiliki efek yang sangat besar pada kepercayaan diri dan volatilitas pasar.<\/p>\n

    2. Ekspektasi Penurunan Suku Bunga & Pengamatan Fed<\/strong><\/h4>\n

    Pasar sangat memperhitungkan pemangkasan Federal Reserve di bulan Oktober (probabilitas 90%) dan pemangkasan kedua di bulan Desember (probabilitas 65%) berdasarkan CME FedWatch Tool.<\/p>\n

    Namun, the Fed menghadapi keseimbangan yang sulit: inflasi tetap berada di atas target, dan beberapa data baru-baru ini lebih kuat dari yang diantisipasi. Laporan pekerjaan AS yang akan datang akan sangat penting dalam memandu ekspektasi pasar.<\/p>\n

    3. Tekanan Komoditas & Energi<\/strong><\/h4>\n
      \n
    • \n

      Minyak<\/strong> berada di bawah tekanan - Wilayah Kurdistan Irak telah kembali mengalir setelah lebih dari 2 tahun, menyuntikkan 180.000-190.000 barel per hari ke pasar.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    • \n

      OPEC+ diperkirakan akan setuju untuk meningkatkan produksi sebesar ~137.000 barel per hari di bulan November, yang mungkin akan semakin melemahkan narasi bullish minyak.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    • \n

      Pelemahan di sektor energi membantu menyeret saham-saham energi yang lebih luas dan saham-saham yang terkait dengan komoditas menjadi lebih rendah, bahkan ketika logam-logam seperti emas melonjak.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      4. Pasar Regional Mengikuti Angin Segar AS<\/strong><\/h4>\n

      Pasar-pasar Teluk naik hari ini, dengan indeks Arab Saudi membukukan keuntungan sebesar ~1,8%. Pergerakan ini terkait langsung dengan optimisme investor terhadap penurunan suku bunga AS dan pelonggaran moneter.<\/p>\n

      Di tempat lain, saham-saham Eropa naik, didukung oleh kekuatan di sektor teknologi dan perawatan kesehatan, bahkan dengan shutdown AS yang menjadi sorotan.<\/p>\n

      \n

      \ud83d\udcca Prospek Teknikal & Pasar<\/h3>\n

      Emas (XAU\/USD):<\/strong>
      Penembusan emas di masa lalu $3,800<\/strong> menandakan momentum kenaikan. Zona support jangka pendek untuk diperhatikan: ~ $3.750, $3.700. Resistensi mungkin muncul di dekat $3,830\u2013$3,850<\/strong>. Mengingat imbal hasil riil yang lemah dan ekspektasi suku bunga yang dovish, tren naik dapat bertahan, selama pelemahan dolar masih ada.<\/p>\n

      Dolar AS & DXY:<\/strong>
      Dolar menghadapi hambatan. Ketidakmampuan indeks untuk mendapatkan kembali 98<\/strong> menunjukkan bahwa harga mungkin akan tetap tertekan. Kecuali jika data AS mengejutkan, penurunan lebih lanjut tampaknya mungkin terjadi, yang selanjutnya akan mendukung aliran emas dan komoditas.<\/p>\n

      Ekuitas & Sentimen:<\/strong>
      Saham global cenderung naik, tetapi kekhawatiran valuasi, bersama dengan risiko makro (shutdown, kebijakan tarif, inflasi), menyiratkan bahwa volatilitas dapat meningkat. Laporan pekerjaan AS berikutnya dan pendapatan perusahaan akan menjadi sangat penting.<\/p>\n

      \n

      \ud83e\udded Apa yang Harus Diperhatikan Minggu Ini<\/h3>\n
      \n
      \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
      Acara<\/th>\nPentingnya<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
      Penggajian Nonpertanian & Pengangguran AS<\/td>\nDapat mengkonfirmasi atau menggagalkan ekspektasi pivot Fed.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Data PMI & Manufaktur (AS, Eropa, Tiongkok)<\/td>\nAkan membantu menilai momentum pertumbuhan global.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      RUU Pendanaan Pemerintah AS<\/td>\nMenentukan apakah pasar menghadapi pemadaman data.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Penghasilan Perusahaan (terutama teknologi)<\/td>\nKunci untuk mempertahankan tren ekuitas.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Pertemuan OPEC+ & Laporan Pasokan Minyak<\/td>\nDapat mengubah tekanan energi menjadi pergerakan komoditas yang lebih luas.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
      \n

      \ud83d\udd1a Pikiran Akhir<\/h3>\n

      Pada 29 September 2025<\/strong>pasar menunjukkan sikap \"risk on\" yang klasik - ekuitas naik, dolar turun, dan emas naik. Namun, optimisme ini bertumpu pada fondasi yang rapuh: hasil kebijakan fiskal AS, laporan tenaga kerja yang akan datang, dan bagaimana Fed merespons.<\/p>\n

      Penembusan emas sangat menarik, namun rentan terhadap kejutan di sisi inflasi atau data. Sikap lemah Dolar dapat berlanjut kecuali jika kejutan makro mengubah sentimen. Dan pasar ekuitas, meskipun kuat, dapat menghadapi guncangan jika kebijakan atau pendapatan mengecewakan.<\/p>\n

      Singkatnya: kita berada dalam lingkungan yang berisiko tinggi. Narasinya masih berubah-ubah - dan hari-hari mendatang mungkin akan membentuk kembali jalur untuk Q4 dan memasuki tahun 2026.<\/p>\n

      \n

      Oleh Motasm Adel<\/strong>
      Peneliti dan Analis Pasar<\/em><\/p>\n

      Penafian Risiko:<\/strong> Informasi ini hanya untuk tujuan edukasi dan bukan merupakan saran investasi. Pasar keuangan mengandung risiko, dan kinerja masa lalu tidak menunjukkan hasil di masa depan. Selalu lakukan penelitian Anda sendiri dan mintalah nasihat profesional sebelum mengambil keputusan investasi.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Pembaruan Pasar - 29 September 2025 Saham Naik, Emas Mengaum, Dolar Turun - Semua Mata Tertuju pada Shutdown AS dan Laporan Pekerjaan \u26a1 Berita Utama & Reaksi Pasar Hari Ini Ekuitas global naik karena selera risiko kembali, didorong oleh optimisme atas penurunan suku bunga AS lebih lanjut dan pelonggaran kekuatan dolar. Emas melonjak ke level tertinggi baru di atas $3.800 per ounce, naik [...]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":24049,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[29,31,38,34,33,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24048","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-analysis","category-economic-calendar-events","category-market-analysis","category-markets-to-watch","category-special-reports","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nStocks Climb, Gold Roars, Dollar Dips \u2014 All Eyes on U.S. Shutdown and Jobs Report - OneRoyal News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/OneRoyal.news\/th\/daily-analysis\/stocks-climb-gold-roars-dollar-dips-all-eyes-on-u-s-shutdown-and-jobs-report\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"id_ID\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Stocks Climb, Gold Roars, Dollar Dips \u2014 All Eyes on U.S. Shutdown and Jobs Report - OneRoyal News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Market Update \u2014 29 September 2025 Stocks Climb, Gold Roars, Dollar Dips \u2014 All Eyes on U.S. Shutdown and Jobs Report \u26a1 Today\u2019s Headlines & Market Reaction Global equities rose as risk\u2010appetite returned, fueled by optimism over further U.S. rate cuts and easing dollar strength. 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