{"id":23770,"date":"2025-07-01T09:28:30","date_gmt":"2025-07-01T09:28:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/?p=23770"},"modified":"2025-07-23T13:42:45","modified_gmt":"2025-07-23T13:42:45","slug":"market-update-1st-july-2025-june-wraps-up-a-chaotic-first-6-months-of-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/id\/daily-analysis\/market-update-1st-july-2025-june-wraps-up-a-chaotic-first-6-months-of-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Pembaruan Pasar: 1 Juli 2025 - Juni Menutup 6 Bulan Pertama yang Kacau di Tahun 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Saham &amp; Kontrak Berjangka AS<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Ekuitas AS menutup paruh pertama tahun 2025 dengan catatan tinggi, S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq, dan Dow semuanya membukukan rekor bulan berturut-turut, didukung oleh meredanya ketegangan perdagangan dan pendapatan teknologi yang kuat. Pagi ini, kontrak berjangka bertahan stabil di dekat level tertinggi baru, menunjukkan pembukaan yang hati-hati namun optimis.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Pelemahan Dolar<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Dolar AS mencapai posisi terendah dalam beberapa tahun terakhir, dengan Indeks Dolar berada pada posisi terlemah sejak awal 2022. Euro telah naik di atas $1.18 di tengah kekhawatiran investor atas utang federal dan tekanan politik terhadap The Fed untuk menurunkan suku bunga<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ekuitas &amp; Komoditas Global<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Pasar Asia sedikit lebih tinggi setelah kenaikan di akhir sesi AS, meskipun kekhawatiran produksi OPEC+ mendorong harga minyak lebih rendah<\/p>\n<p><strong>Pendorong Utama Menjelang NFP<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>1. Tekanan Kebijakan Suku Bunga The Fed<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Presiden Trump terus mendorong penurunan suku bunga, muncul kembali dalam pidato publik dan bahkan dalam sebuah catatan yang ditulis tangan. Sementara itu, suara-suara Fed tertentu seperti Michelle Bowman dan Chris Waller mengindikasikan bahwa pemangkasan di bulan Juli masih ada meskipun belum diperhitungkan oleh bursa berjangka (saat ini menunjukkan peluang ~23%)<\/p>\n<p><strong>2. Perdagangan &amp; Kebijakan Silang<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Jeda sementara dalam pajak layanan digital Kanada dan ketenangan di Timur Tengah membantu mengangkat pasar lebih tinggi. Namun, kegelisahan geopolitik tetap ada: Tanggal 9 Juli menandai batas waktu jeda tarif selama 90 hari, dan pemungutan suara RUU baru di Senat dapat memicu volatilitas<\/p>\n<p><strong>3. Fokus pada NFP hari Kamis<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Jadwal liburan yang lebih pendek minggu ini berarti semua mata tertuju pada laporan pekerjaan bulan Juni yang akan dirilis pada hari Kamis. Para ekonom memperkirakan penambahan 110 ribu pekerjaan, dengan varians upah dan pengangguran yang rendah, setiap deviasi dapat mendorong repricing ekspektasi Fed.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Kesimpulan:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Hari ini terasa seperti ketenangan sebelum badai. Pasar berada di dekat rekor tertinggi, tetapi risiko yang mendasari jadwal perdagangan, tagihan fiskal, dan Fed yang tidak pasti menyebabkan kehati-hatian dengan volume rendah. Ini adalah hari untuk mengamati posisi, likuiditas, dan arus lintas aset saat kita menuju laporan pekerjaan AS yang sangat penting pada hari Kamis.<\/p>\n<p>Sampai jumpa lagi, semoga trading Anda aman!<\/p>\n<p>Oleh James Trescothick<br \/>\nKepala Riset Pasar dan Analisis Pasar<\/p>\n<p>Penafian Risiko: Informasi ini hanya untuk tujuan edukasi dan bukan merupakan saran investasi. Pasar keuangan mengandung risiko, dan kinerja masa lalu tidak menunjukkan hasil di masa depan. Selalu lakukan penelitian Anda sendiri dan mintalah nasihat profesional sebelum mengambil keputusan investasi.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Saham &amp; Futures AS Ekuitas AS menutup paruh pertama tahun 2025 dengan catatan tinggi, S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq, dan Dow semuanya membukukan rekor bulan berturut-turut, didukung oleh meredanya ketegangan perdagangan dan pendapatan teknologi yang kuat. Pagi ini, kontrak berjangka bertahan stabil di dekat level tertinggi baru, menunjukkan pembukaan yang hati-hati namun optimis. Pelemahan Dolar Dolar AS [...]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":23862,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[29,38],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23770","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-analysis","category-market-analysis"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Trading Market Updates June 2025 | OneRoyal News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"It\u2019s a day for watching positioning, liquidity, and cross-asset flows as we edge toward Thursday\u2019s pivotal U.S. jobs report. 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