چشم‌انداز طلا در بحبوحه تحولات تعرفه‌ای ترامپ: ریسک سیاست‌گذاری با قدرت فنی تلاقی می‌کند

بررسی اجمالی بازار

Gold continues to trade near record levels as markets digest renewed uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy following fresh tariff signals from former President Donald Trump. While tariff-related headlines initially triggered a short-term risk-on reaction—pressuring gold—price action quickly stabilized, reflecting the market’s broader concern over inflation risks, global trade disruption, and policy uncertainty.

At the same time, gold’s technical structure remains firmly bullish, suggesting that recent pullbacks are corrective rather than indicative of a trend reversal.

Fundamental Analysis: Trump Tariffs and Market Impact

Renewed discussions around potential U.S. tariff measures have injected volatility across global markets. Historically, tariff escalation tends to create two competing forces for gold:

1. Short-Term Pressure:
   • Stronger U.S. dollar on protectionist rhetoric
   • Temporary shift toward equities on domestic-growth optimism
3. Medium-to-Long-Term Support:
   • Rising inflation expectations due to higher import costs
   • Increased global trade uncertainty
   • Heightened geopolitical and fiscal risk

While the immediate market reaction leaned toward profit-taking in gold, the broader macro implications remain structurally supportive for precious metals—especially if tariffs translate into higher inflation and slower global growth.

Technical Analysis: Gold Price Structure

From a technical perspective, gold remains in a clear bullish trend, supported by higher highs and higher lows across multiple timeframes.

Recent price action shows strong impulsive movement followed by shallow consolidation, signaling healthy market structure rather than exhaustion.

سطوح فنی کلیدی

• مقاومت فوری:
  The recent highs near the 4,880–4,900 zone remain the key upside barrier. A confirmed break above this area would open the door for further trend continuation.
• Near-Term Support:
  The 4,600–4,650 region represents a critical demand zone. As long as price holds above this level, bullish control remains intact.
• پشتیبانی ساختاری اصلی:
  The broader trend support and previous breakout zone near 4,326 remains the key invalidation level for the bullish bias.

Scenario Outlook

سناریوی صعودی:

If gold maintains support above the current consolidation range:

• Upside continuation remains the dominant scenario
• Breakout confirmation would attract trend-following and institutional flows
• Safe-haven demand may re-emerge as tariff risks evolve

Corrective Scenario:

If short-term selling pressure increases:

• A pullback toward demand zones would be considered corrective
• Structural trend remains intact unless major support is breached

نتیجه‌گیری

Gold’s reaction to Trump tariff developments highlights the market’s sensitivity to policy-driven risk. While short-term volatility is expected, both fundamental conditions and technical structure continue to favor gold on a medium-term basis.

As long as gold holds above key support levels, pullbacks are likely to be viewed as opportunities rather than trend reversals, especially amid rising global uncertainty and inflationary pressures.

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