{"id":24262,"date":"2025-12-17T09:49:33","date_gmt":"2025-12-17T09:49:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/?p=24262"},"modified":"2025-12-17T09:49:33","modified_gmt":"2025-12-17T09:49:33","slug":"market-update17th-december-2025-two-jobs-reports-walk-into-a-market-cpi-waits-at-the-bar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/es\/daily-analysis\/market-update17th-december-2025-two-jobs-reports-walk-into-a-market-cpi-waits-at-the-bar\/","title":{"rendered":"Actualizaci\u00f3n del mercado:17 de diciembre de 2025- Dos informes de empleo entran en un mercado... El IPC espera en el bar"},"content":{"rendered":"

La doble publicaci\u00f3n de ayer sobre las n\u00f3minas no agr\u00edcolas dio mucho que masticar a los mercados, aunque no zanj\u00f3 del todo la discusi\u00f3n. En conjunto, las cifras apuntan a un mercado laboral estadounidense que se est\u00e1 enfriando amablemente, en lugar de desplomarse por los suelos.<\/p>\n

Los detalles importan.<\/strong><\/p>\n

- NFP de octubre: aproximadamente -105.000 empleos, muy distorsionados por los efectos del cierre<\/p>\n

- NFP de noviembre: en torno a +64.000 empleos, superando ligeramente las expectativas<\/p>\n

- Tasa de desempleo: sube al 4,6%, la m\u00e1s alta en varios a\u00f1os<\/p>\n

- Salario medio por hora: en torno a 0,1% m\/m<\/p>\n

A primera vista, el repunte de noviembre parece alentador. Sin embargo, si rascamos debajo, la historia m\u00e1s amplia es la de una desaceleraci\u00f3n del impulso. La creaci\u00f3n de empleo es m\u00e1s d\u00e9bil de lo que era, el desempleo est\u00e1 aumentando y el crecimiento salarial, el punto de tensi\u00f3n preferido de la Reserva Federal, sigue enfri\u00e1ndose.<\/p>\n

En otras palabras, el mercado laboral sigue en pie, pero ya no esprinta.<\/p>\n

Para los mercados, esto es bastante \u00fatil. Elimina el riesgo de inflaci\u00f3n impulsada por la mano de obra sin forzar una narrativa de recesi\u00f3n inmediata. La Fed puede permitirse quedarse quieta, parecer pensativa e insistir una vez m\u00e1s en que \u201cdepende de los datos\u201d.\u201d<\/p>\n

Lo que nos lleva claramente al IPC estadounidense.<\/p>\n

IPC: La \u00fanica cifra que realmente importa esta semana<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ahora que el empleo ya est\u00e1 ampliamente valorado, la inflaci\u00f3n pasa a un primer plano.<\/p>\n

- IPC general (previsto): 3,0% interanual<\/p>\n

- IPC subyacente (esperado): 3,2-3,3% a\/a, con signos de mayor moderaci\u00f3n mensual<\/p>\n

Tras un informe laboral que ofreci\u00f3 m\u00e1s tranquilidad que entusiasmo, el IPC lleva la carga de la prueba. Un dato m\u00e1s suave validar\u00eda la idea de que la desinflaci\u00f3n est\u00e1 haciendo lentamente su trabajo y mantendr\u00eda vivas las expectativas de recorte de tipos. Sin embargo, una cifra m\u00e1s firme recordar\u00eda a los mercados que la \u00faltima milla de la inflaci\u00f3n sigue siendo obstinadamente cuesta arriba.<\/p>\n

Mercado para llevar<\/strong><\/p>\n

Los PFN no cambiaron la historia, la refinaron.
\nLa econom\u00eda estadounidense se ralentiza, pero no se quiebra. El empleo se relaja, pero no se hunde. Y la Reserva Federal est\u00e1 esperando, pacientemente, a que la inflaci\u00f3n parpadee primero.
\nHasta que hable el IPC, es probable que los mercados se mantengan cautelosos, dentro de un rango y con opiniones discretas, al igual que los propios datos.<\/p>\n

En fin, hasta la pr\u00f3xima, \u00a1cada uno a lo suyo, comercie seguro!<\/p>\n

Por James Trescothick
\nJefe de Investigaci\u00f3n y An\u00e1lisis de Mercados<\/p>\n

Descargo de responsabilidad por riesgos: Esta informaci\u00f3n tiene \u00fanicamente fines educativos y no constituye asesoramiento en materia de inversi\u00f3n. Los mercados financieros entra\u00f1an riesgos, y las rentabilidades pasadas no son indicativas de resultados futuros. Realice siempre su propia investigaci\u00f3n y busque asesoramiento profesional antes de tomar decisiones de inversi\u00f3n.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La doble publicaci\u00f3n de ayer sobre las n\u00f3minas no agr\u00edcolas dio mucho que masticar a los mercados, aunque no zanj\u00f3 del todo la discusi\u00f3n. En conjunto, las cifras apuntan a un mercado laboral estadounidense que se est\u00e1 enfriando amablemente, en lugar de desplomarse por los suelos. Los detalles importan. - NFP de octubre: aproximadamente -105.000 empleos, muy distorsionado por los efectos del cierre - Noviembre [...]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":23710,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[29,38],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24262","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-analysis","category-market-analysis"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMarket Update:17th December 2025- Two Jobs Reports Walk into a Market\u2026 CPI Waits at the Bar - OneRoyal News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.oneroyal.news\/vi\/daily-analysis\/market-update17th-december-2025-two-jobs-reports-walk-into-a-market-cpi-waits-at-the-bar\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Market Update:17th December 2025- Two Jobs Reports Walk into a Market\u2026 CPI Waits at the Bar - OneRoyal News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Yesterday\u2019s double-header Non-Farm Payrolls release gave markets plenty to chew on, even if it didn\u2019t quite settle the argument. Taken together, the numbers point to a U.S. labour market that is cooling politely, rather than collapsing through the floor. 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