{"id":24048,"date":"2025-09-29T13:49:02","date_gmt":"2025-09-29T13:49:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/?p=24048"},"modified":"2025-09-29T13:49:02","modified_gmt":"2025-09-29T13:49:02","slug":"stocks-climb-gold-roars-dollar-dips-all-eyes-on-u-s-shutdown-and-jobs-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/oneroyal.news\/es\/daily-analysis\/stocks-climb-gold-roars-dollar-dips-all-eyes-on-u-s-shutdown-and-jobs-report\/","title":{"rendered":"Las acciones suben, el oro se dispara y el d\u00f3lar cae - Todos los ojos puestos en el cierre de EE.UU. y el informe de empleo"},"content":{"rendered":"

Actualizaci\u00f3n del mercado - 29 de septiembre de 2025<\/h2>\n

Las acciones suben, el oro se dispara y el d\u00f3lar cae - Todos los ojos puestos en el cierre de EE.UU. y el informe de empleo<\/strong><\/h2>\n
\n

\u26a1 Titulares de hoy y reacci\u00f3n del mercado<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n

    La renta variable mundial subi\u00f3 al recuperarse el apetito por el riesgo, impulsado por el optimismo ante nuevos recortes de tipos en Estados Unidos y la relajaci\u00f3n de la fortaleza del d\u00f3lar.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Oro<\/strong> alcanzaron nuevos m\u00e1ximos por encima del $3,800 por onza<\/strong>Las expectativas monetarias moderadas y el debilitamiento del d\u00f3lar.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    En cambio, el D\u00f3lar estadounidense<\/strong> La Reserva Federal de EE.UU. ha relajado su pol\u00edtica monetaria, lo que complica su impulso a corto plazo.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Las bolsas del Golfo y Oriente Medio tambi\u00e9n registraron ganancias, impulsadas por la expectativa de recortes de tipos en Estados Unidos y un entorno exterior favorable.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Los precios del petr\u00f3leo cayeron ante la renovada preocupaci\u00f3n por la oferta: la regi\u00f3n iraqu\u00ed del Kurdist\u00e1n reanud\u00f3 las exportaciones y se espera que la OPEP+ apruebe aumentos de la producci\u00f3n en noviembre.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    \n

    \ud83d\udd0d Los grandes temas que impulsan el cambio<\/h3>\n

    1. Incertidumbre sobre el cierre del Gobierno de EE.UU.<\/strong><\/h4>\n

    Los legisladores de Washington est\u00e1n presionados para aprobar una ley de financiaci\u00f3n a corto plazo antes del 1 de octubre. Si se produce un cierre, podr\u00eda retrasar la publicaci\u00f3n de datos econ\u00f3micos cruciales como el informe de n\u00f3minas no agr\u00edcolas de septiembre, lo que dejar\u00eda a la Reserva Federal navegando en la oscuridad antes de su pr\u00f3xima reuni\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

    Los analistas se\u00f1alan que un cierre prolongado podr\u00eda mermar ligeramente el crecimiento del PIB (por ejemplo, -0,1 puntos porcentuales por semana), pero podr\u00eda tener efectos desmesurados sobre la confianza y la volatilidad de los mercados.<\/p>\n

    2. Expectativas de recorte de tipos y vigilancia de la Fed<\/strong><\/h4>\n

    Los mercados est\u00e1n valorando fuertemente otro recorte de la Reserva Federal en octubre (probabilidad \u2248 90%) y un segundo recorte en diciembre (\u2248 65%) seg\u00fan la herramienta FedWatch de la CME.<\/p>\n

    Aun as\u00ed, la Reserva Federal se enfrenta a un delicado equilibrio: la inflaci\u00f3n se mantiene por encima del objetivo y algunos datos recientes han sido m\u00e1s s\u00f3lidos de lo previsto. El pr\u00f3ximo informe sobre el empleo en Estados Unidos ser\u00e1 fundamental para orientar las expectativas del mercado.<\/p>\n

    3. Presi\u00f3n sobre las materias primas y la energ\u00eda<\/strong><\/h4>\n
      \n
    • \n

      Aceite<\/strong> est\u00e1 bajo presi\u00f3n - la regi\u00f3n iraqu\u00ed del Kurdist\u00e1n ha reanudado los flujos tras m\u00e1s de 2 a\u00f1os, inyectando en el mercado entre 180.000 y 190.000 barriles diarios.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    • \n

      Se espera que la OPEP+ acuerde aumentar la producci\u00f3n en unos 137.000 barriles diarios en noviembre, lo que posiblemente debilite a\u00fan m\u00e1s la narrativa alcista del petr\u00f3leo.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    • \n

      La debilidad del sector energ\u00e9tico contribuy\u00f3 a la ca\u00edda de la renta variable vinculada a las materias primas y de la energ\u00eda en general, a pesar de la subida de metales como el oro.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      4. Los mercados regionales aprovechan el viento a favor de EE.UU.<\/strong><\/h4>\n

      Los mercados del Golfo subieron hoy, y el \u00edndice de Arabia Saud\u00ed registr\u00f3 ganancias de ~1,8%. El movimiento est\u00e1 ligado directamente al optimismo de los inversores en torno a los recortes de tipos y la relajaci\u00f3n monetaria de Estados Unidos.<\/p>\n

      Por otra parte, las acciones europeas subieron, impulsadas por la fortaleza de los sectores tecnol\u00f3gico y sanitario, incluso con el cierre de EE.UU. en el punto de mira.<\/p>\n

      \n

      \ud83d\udcca Perspectivas t\u00e9cnicas y de mercado<\/h3>\n

      Oro (XAU\/USD):<\/strong>
      El pasado del oro $3,800<\/strong> indica un impulso creciente. Zonas de soporte a corto plazo a vigilar: ~$3.750, $3.700. La resistencia puede surgir cerca de $3,830\u2013$3,850<\/strong>. Dada la debilidad de los rendimientos reales y las expectativas de tipos moderadas, la tendencia alcista podr\u00eda persistir, siempre que se mantenga la debilidad del d\u00f3lar.<\/p>\n

      D\u00f3lar estadounidense y DXY:<\/strong>
      El d\u00f3lar se enfrenta a vientos en contra. La incapacidad del \u00edndice para recuperar 98<\/strong> sugiere que puede seguir presionado. A menos que los datos estadounidenses sorprendan, parece probable que se produzcan nuevas ca\u00eddas, lo que respaldar\u00eda a\u00fan m\u00e1s los flujos de oro y materias primas.<\/p>\n

      Renta variable y sentimiento:<\/strong>
      Las bolsas mundiales muestran una tendencia alcista, pero las preocupaciones por la valoraci\u00f3n, junto con los riesgos macroecon\u00f3micos (cierres, pol\u00edtica arancelaria, inflaci\u00f3n), implican que la volatilidad podr\u00eda repuntar. El pr\u00f3ximo informe sobre el empleo en EE. UU. y los beneficios empresariales tendr\u00e1n una gran importancia.<\/p>\n

      \n

      Qu\u00e9 ver esta semana<\/h3>\n
      \n
      \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
      Evento<\/th>\nImportancia<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
      N\u00f3minas no agr\u00edcolas y desempleo en EE.UU.<\/td>\nPodr\u00eda confirmar o desbaratar las expectativas de giro de la Fed.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      PMI y datos manufactureros (EE.UU., Europa, China)<\/td>\nAyudar\u00e1 a evaluar el impulso del crecimiento mundial.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Ley de financiaci\u00f3n del Gobierno de EE.UU.<\/td>\nDetermina si los mercados sufren cortes de datos.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Beneficios de las empresas (especialmente las tecnol\u00f3gicas)<\/td>\nClave para mantener las tendencias de equidad.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Reuni\u00f3n de la OPEP+ e informes sobre el suministro de petr\u00f3leo<\/td>\nLa presi\u00f3n sobre la energ\u00eda podr\u00eda traducirse en un movimiento m\u00e1s amplio de las materias primas.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
      \n

      \ud83d\udd1a Reflexiones finales<\/h3>\n

      En 29 de septiembre de 2025<\/strong>Los mercados est\u00e1n mostrando la cl\u00e1sica postura de \"riesgo activado\": la renta variable al alza, el d\u00f3lar a la baja y el oro a la carga. Sin embargo, este optimismo descansa sobre una base delicada: el resultado de la pol\u00edtica fiscal estadounidense, el pr\u00f3ximo informe laboral y la respuesta de la Reserva Federal.<\/p>\n

      La ruptura del oro es convincente, pero es vulnerable a las sorpresas en el frente de la inflaci\u00f3n o los datos. El d\u00f3lar podr\u00eda seguir mostrando una postura d\u00e9bil, a menos que las sorpresas macroecon\u00f3micas cambien el sentimiento. Y los mercados de renta variable, aunque alcistas, podr\u00edan sufrir sacudidas si la pol\u00edtica monetaria o los beneficios decepcionan.<\/p>\n

      En resumen: nos encontramos en un entorno en el que hay mucho en juego. La narrativa sigue siendo fluida y los pr\u00f3ximos d\u00edas pueden cambiar el rumbo del cuarto trimestre y de 2026.<\/p>\n

      \n

      Por Motasm Adel<\/strong>
      Investigador y analista de mercado<\/em><\/p>\n

      Descargo de responsabilidad:<\/strong> Esta informaci\u00f3n tiene \u00fanicamente fines educativos y no constituye asesoramiento en materia de inversi\u00f3n. Los mercados financieros entra\u00f1an riesgos, y las rentabilidades pasadas no son indicativas de resultados futuros. Realice siempre su propia investigaci\u00f3n y busque asesoramiento profesional antes de tomar decisiones de inversi\u00f3n.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Noticias del mercado - 29 de septiembre de 2025 Las acciones suben, el oro se dispara, el d\u00f3lar cae - Todos los ojos puestos en el cierre de EE.UU. y el informe de empleo \u26a1 Titulares de hoy y reacci\u00f3n del mercado Las acciones mundiales subieron a medida que volv\u00eda el apetito por el riesgo, alimentado por el optimismo sobre nuevos recortes de tipos de EE.UU. y la relajaci\u00f3n de la fortaleza del d\u00f3lar. El oro alcanz\u00f3 nuevos m\u00e1ximos por encima de los 1.800 [...]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":24049,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[29,31,38,34,33,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24048","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-daily-analysis","category-economic-calendar-events","category-market-analysis","category-markets-to-watch","category-special-reports","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nStocks Climb, Gold Roars, Dollar Dips \u2014 All Eyes on U.S. Shutdown and Jobs Report - OneRoyal News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/OneRoyal.news\/th\/daily-analysis\/stocks-climb-gold-roars-dollar-dips-all-eyes-on-u-s-shutdown-and-jobs-report\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Stocks Climb, Gold Roars, Dollar Dips \u2014 All Eyes on U.S. Shutdown and Jobs Report - OneRoyal News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Market Update \u2014 29 September 2025 Stocks Climb, Gold Roars, Dollar Dips \u2014 All Eyes on U.S. Shutdown and Jobs Report \u26a1 Today\u2019s Headlines & Market Reaction Global equities rose as risk\u2010appetite returned, fueled by optimism over further U.S. rate cuts and easing dollar strength. 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