Bank of England Expected to Hold Rates as Caution Reigns – GBPUSD Tests Key Support

Market Overview

Markets are widely expecting the Bank of England (BoE) to hold interest rates, as policymakers continue to balance persistent inflation risks with signs of slowing economic momentum.

Recent UK data has presented a mixed picture:

• Inflation pressures remain above long-term targets.

• Economic growth indicators show moderation.

• Consumer activity and housing demand have softened compared to previous quarters.

This environment encourages the BoE to maintain a wait-and-see approach, allowing previous rate decisions to fully transmit through the economy before considering further action.

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Why the Bank of England Is Likely to Hold

Several factors explain the cautious stance:

1. Inflation Is Easing but Not Fully Controlled
Although inflation has shown signs of slowing, core components remain sticky, especially in services and wages. Central banks typically avoid premature easing under such conditions.

2. Economic Growth Is Fragile
Aggressive tightening in prior cycles has begun to weigh on borrowing costs, investment, and household spending. Holding rates allows policymakers to monitor the lagged effects.

3. Global Monetary Policy Environment
Major central banks are entering a phase of policy divergence and recalibration. The BoE is likely to avoid abrupt changes that could destabilize currency markets.

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Impact on the British Pound

When markets anticipate a rate hold:

• The pound may lose some yield-driven support.

• Currency movements become more sensitive to incoming data.

• Technical levels play a greater role in short-term price action.

This dynamic is currently visible in GBPUSD price behavior.

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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD (5 Feb 2026)

From a technical perspective, GBPUSD has entered a corrective phase after a strong bullish rally in late January.

Key observations from the chart:

1. Rejection from Recent Highs
Price failed to sustain above the 1.3800 region, forming lower highs and indicating weakening bullish momentum.

2. Retest of a Demand / Support Zone
GBPUSD is currently testing an important support area near:
1.3550 – 1.3580

This zone previously acted as:

• A breakout area

• A liquidity accumulation region

• A structural support level

Market reaction here is critical for short-term direction.

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Key Levels to Watch

Support Levels

• 1.3550 (primary intraday support)

• 1.3450 (next structural support)

Resistance Levels

• 1.3700

• 1.3800

A sustained break below support could open the door to deeper correction, while holding above the zone may trigger a rebound toward recent highs.

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Market Scenarios

Bullish Scenario
If price holds above the demand zone and momentum returns:

• GBPUSD may rebound toward 1.3700

• Buyers could regain short-term control

Bearish Scenario
If support fails decisively:

• A liquidity sweep toward lower supports becomes likely

• Momentum may favor sellers in the short term

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Conclusion

The expected Bank of England rate hold reflects a cautious macro environment where inflation risks and economic slowdown coexist.

At the same time, GBPUSD is approaching a technically sensitive level, making the next market reaction highly dependent on:

• Central bank guidance

• Upcoming economic data

• Dollar strength dynamics

Traders should closely monitor both macro signals and price structure before committing to directional positions.

 

By Motasm Adel
Market Researcher and Analyst

Risk Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Financial markets involve risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and seek professional advice before making investment decisions.