Stocks Climb, Gold Roars, Dollar Dips — All Eyes on U.S. Shutdown and Jobs Report

Motasm Adel

Market Update — 29 September 2025

Stocks Climb, Gold Roars, Dollar Dips — All Eyes on U.S. Shutdown and Jobs Report

⚡ Today’s Headlines & Market Reaction

Global equities rose as risk‐appetite returned, fueled by optimism over further U.S. rate cuts and easing dollar strength.
Gold surged to new highs above $3,800 per ounce, riding on the dovish monetary expectations and a weaker dollar.
In contrast, the U.S. dollar slipped as markets priced in more easing from the Fed, complicating its near-term momentum.
Gulf and Middle Eastern stock markets also posted gains, boosted by the expectation of U.S. rate cuts and a favorable external environment.
Oil prices fell on renewed supply concerns — Iraq’s Kurdistan region resumed exports, and OPEC+ is expected to approve production increases in November.

🔍 The Big Themes Driving the Move

1. U.S. Government Shutdown Uncertainty

Lawmakers in Washington are under pressure to pass a short-term funding bill by 1 October. If a shutdown occurs, it could delay critical economic data releases like the September nonfarm payrolls report — which would leave the Fed navigating in the dark ahead of its next meeting.

Analysts note that a protracted shutdown might slightly dent GDP growth (e.g., −0.1 percentage point per week) but could have outsized effects on confidence and market volatility.

2. Rate Cut Expectations & Fed Watch

Markets are heavily pricing in another Federal Reserve cut in October (≈ 90% probability) and a second cut in December (≈ 65%) per the CME FedWatch Tool.

Still, the Fed faces a delicate balance: inflation remains above target, and some recent data has been sturdier than anticipated. The upcoming U.S. jobs report will be pivotal in guiding market expectations.

3. Commodity & Energy Pressure

Oil is under pressure — Iraq’s Kurdistan region has resumed flows after over 2 years, injecting 180,000–190,000 barrels per day into the market.
OPEC+ is expected to agree to raise output by ~137,000 barrels per day in November, possibly further weakening oil’s bullish narrative.
Weakness in energy helped drag broader energies and commodity‐linked equities lower, even as metals like gold surged.

4. Regional Markets Ride U.S. Tailwinds

Gulf markets climbed today, with Saudi Arabia’s index posting gains of ~1.8%. The movement is tied directly to investor optimism around U.S. rate cuts and monetary easing.

Elsewhere, European shares nudged upward, buoyed by strength in tech and healthcare sectors, even with the U.S. shutdown in the spotlight.

📊 Technical & Market Outlook

Gold (XAU/USD):
Gold’s breakout past $3,800 signals mounting momentum. Short‐term support zones to watch: ~$3,750, $3,700. Resistance may emerge near $3,830–$3,850. Given weak real yields and dovish rate expectations, the uptrend could persist, as long as dollar weakness remains.

U.S. Dollar & DXY:
The dollar faces headwinds. The index’s inability to reclaim 98 suggests it may remain pressured. Unless U.S. data surprises, further downside seems probable, which would further support gold and commodity flows.

Equities & Sentiment:
Global stocks are trending upward, but valuation concerns, along with macro risks (shutdowns, tariff policy, inflation), imply that volatility could spike. The next U.S. jobs report and corporate earnings will have outsized importance.

🧭 What to Watch This Week

Event	Importance
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment	Could confirm or derail Fed’s pivot expectations.
PMI & Manufacturing Data (U.S., Europe, China)	Will help assess global growth momentum.
U.S. Government Funding Bill	Determines whether markets face data blackouts.
Corporate Earnings (especially tech)	Key for sustaining equity trends.
OPEC+ Meeting & Oil Supply Reports	May turn energy pressure into broader commodity move.

🔚 Final Thoughts

On 29 September 2025, markets are displaying the classic “risk on” posture — equities rising, dollar sliding, and gold charging ahead. Yet, this optimism rests on a delicate foundation: the outcome of U.S. fiscal policy, the upcoming labor report, and how the Fed responds.

Gold’s breakout is compelling, but it’s vulnerable to surprises on the inflation or data front. The dollar’s soft posture may continue unless macro surprises shift sentiment. And equity markets, while buoyant, could face shakeouts if policy or earnings disappoint.

In short: we’re in a high-stakes environment. The narrative remains fluid — and the coming days may reshape the path for Q4 and into 2026.

By Motasm Adel
Market Researcher and Analyst

Risk Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Financial markets involve risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and seek professional advice before making investment decisions.